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全球進入負利率時代?投資者該何去何從?

hxyxm 于2019-11-21發布 l 已有人瀏覽
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歐洲和日本的重要利率幾年來一直為負。日本央行和歐洲央行希望經濟增長和小幅通脹,因此它們已將利率降至零以下。
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广东36选7好彩3开奖奖金多少 www.oabxa.com Negative US Interest Rates? Not Likely, Say Investors

美國負利率?投資者說認為不太可能

Important interest rates in Europe and Japan have been negative for several years. The moves, however, could provide a warning about what happens when central banks' efforts to support growth create problems instead.

歐洲和日本的重要利率幾年來一直為負。然而,這些舉措可能為人們提供一個警告,即當各國央行支持經濟增長的努力產生問題時,會發生什么。

That is the idea expressed last week by finance officials and others at the Reuters Global Investment Outlook 2020 Summit. They argue that the effects of below-zero interest rates are long-lasting and harmful.

這是上周在路透全球投資展望2020年峰會上,各國財政官員和其他人表達的觀點。他們認為,低于零利率的影響是長期的、有害的。

Interest rates are negative when lenders, not borrowers, must pay interest.

當貸款人(而非借款人)必須支付利息時,利率為負。

Critics say negative rates punish people who save money, cause problems for big banks and lead people to take bigger risks to get a small amount of interest.

批評人士說,負利率會懲罰那些存錢的人,給大銀行帶來麻煩,讓人們冒更大的風險來獲得少量利息。

About $12.5 trillion of the world's bonds, about 30 percent of the debt of countries in the developed world, pay negative interest. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank want economic growth and a small amount of inflation, so they have cut their interest rates to below zero.

世界上約有12.5萬億美元的債券,約占發達國家債務的30%,支付的是負利率。日本央行和歐洲央行希望經濟增長和小幅通脹,因此它們已將利率降至零以下。

However, a negative interest rate policy helps keep other interest rates, like the ones banks pay savers, low.

然而,負利率政策有助于保持其他利率,比如銀行支付給儲戶的利率較低。

That means older people saving for retirement or in retirement are losing money, explained a recent blog post by BlackRock.

貝萊德最近的一篇博客文章解釋稱,這意味著老年人為退休或即將退休而存錢是在賠錢。

Blackrock and other investors say the U.S. Federal Reserve under Chairman Jerome Powell has been closely watching the situation in Europe and Japan. They say Powell wants to avoid negative rates in the United States.

貝萊德和其他投資者說,美聯儲主席鮑威爾一直在密切關注歐洲和日本的形勢。他們說,鮑威爾希望避免美國出現負利率。

When you listen to Powell and other representatives of the Fed, they don't want to takes rates negative, said Dan Ivascyn. He is an investment officer at bond seller Pacific Investment Management Co.

丹·伊凡申說:“當你聽到鮑威爾和其他美聯儲代表的講話時,他們不希望看到利率為負,”。他是債券銷售商太平洋投資管理公司的投資主管。

It will be well down the list of the tools that they will use, he said.

他說:“這將遠遠低于他們將使用的工具清單。”

The moves by Europe and Japan's central banks have raised a question about what tools others, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, have to fight a slowing economy.

歐洲和日本央行的舉措引發了一個問題,即美國聯邦儲備委員會等其他央行應該用什么工具來應對經濟放緩。

The U.S. central bank last month cut its overnight lending rate by a fourth of a percentage point to a target somewhere between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent.

美國央行上個月將隔夜貸款利率下調0.25個百分點,至1.5%至1.75%之間的目標。

U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that the Federal Reserve push interest rates into negative numbers as a way to permit the U.S. government to refinance its $22 trillion in debt.

美國總統唐納德·特朗普建議美聯儲將利率降至負數,以允許美國政府為其22萬億美元的債務再融資。

That is unlikely to happen, some of the financial experts at the meetings said.

一些與會的金融專家說,這種情況不太可能發生。

Never say never, but there is a real hesitancy here in the U.S. to take rates below (zero), said Greg Peters. He is with the investment company, PGIM Fixed Income.

彼得斯說““永遠不要說永遠,但是在美國,人們確實在猶豫是否把利率降到零以下。他就職于PGIM固定收益投資公司。

I think the U.S. has had the benefit of seeing the (effects) of negative rates elsewhere, he added.

他補充道:“我認為美國受益于看到其他地方負利率的影響,”。

Negative interest rates do not always lead to an increase in lending and growing business investment.

負利率并不總是會導致貸款增加和商業投資增長。

Negative rates can cause financial organizations to earn less. If their profits are affected they might stop lending altogether and that would hurt the economy.

負利率會導致金融機構的收入減少。如果它們的利潤受到影響,它們可能會完全停止放貸,這將損害經濟。

Anne Mathias supervises investing at Vanguard. She is an expert in worldwide interest rates. She said negative interest rates are unlikely.

安妮·馬蒂亞斯負責監督Vanguard的投資。她是世界利率方面的專家。她表示,不太可能出現負利率。

If we go into a recession...we will just go back to quantitative easing and expand the balance sheet again, she said.

“如果我們陷入衰退……我們將回到量化寬松,再次擴大資產負債表,”她表示。

Andrew Hsu is a manager of the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund. He warned about the effects of negative rates.

安德魯·許是DoubleLine Total Return債券基金的經理。他對負利率的影響發出了警告。

If we had negative rates for the next 10-20 years... no one in this room will be able to retire, he said.

“如果未來10-20年負利率……這個房間里沒有人可以退休。”

I'm Susan Shand.

蘇珊·尚德為您報道。

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