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Ted演講:解決全球變暖的100種方法

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遞減減排是思考和應對全球變暖的一種新思路。這是一個目標,通向我們想要的未來,一個有可能逆轉全球變暖的未來。
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广东36选7好彩3开奖奖金多少 www.oabxa.com Chad Frischmann: 100 solutions to reverse global warming

解決全球變暖的100種方法

Hello. I'd like to introduce you to a word you may never have heard before, but you ought to know: drawdown. Drawdown is a new way of thinking about and acting on global warming. It's a goal for a future that we want, a future where reversing global warming is possible. Drawdown is that point in time when atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases begin to decline on a year-to-year basis. More simply, it's that point when we take out more greenhouse gases than we put into Earth's atmosphere.

你們好!我想向你們介紹一個你們過去可能從未聽過,但應該知道的詞語:遞減減排。遞減減排是思考和應對全球變暖的一種新思路。這是一個目標,通向我們想要的未來,一個有可能逆轉全球變暖的未來。遞減減排是大氣層中溫室氣體開始逐年下降的那個時間點。簡單來說,是那個我們從大氣層中除去的溫室氣體大于我們排入的節點。

Now, I know we're all concerned about climate change, but climate change is not the problem. Climate change is the expression of the problem. It's the feedback of the system of the planet telling us what's going on. The problem is global warming, provoked by the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases caused by human activity.

如今,我知道我們都擔憂氣候變化,但氣候變化本身不是問題。氣候變化是問題的表象。這是地球生態告訴我們正在發生什么的信號。真正的問題是全球變暖,是來自溫室氣體濃度的增加,這都來自人類的行為。

So how do we solve the problem? How do we begin the process of reversing global warming? The only way we know how is to draw down, to avoid putting greenhouse gases up and to pull down what's already there. I know. Given the current situation, it sounds impossible, but humanity already knows what to do. We have real, workable technologies and practices that can achieve drawdown. And it's already happening. What we need is to accelerate implementation and to change the discourse from one of fear and confusion, which only leads to apathy, to one of understanding and possibility, and, therefore, opportunity.

那么我們如何解決這個問題?我們如何開始逆轉全球變暖?我們知道的唯一方法是遞減減排,避免排放溫室氣體并把已經存在的溫室氣體降下來。我知道。鑒于目前形勢,這聽起來不可能,但人類已經知道該怎么做了。我們有真正,可行的技術和實踐可以實現遞減減排。并且這已經在發生了。我們需要的是加速實施,并把話語權從只會導致冷漠的恐懼和混亂中解放出來,達到一種理解和可能,進而抓住機遇。

I work for an organization called Project Drawdown. And for the last four years, together with a team of researchers and writers from all over the world, we have mapped, measured and detailed 100 solutions to reversing global warming. Eighty already exist today, and when taken together, those 80 can achieve drawdown. And 20 are coming attractions, solutions on the pipeline, and when they come online, will speed up our progress. These are solutions that are viable, scalable and financially feasible. And they do one or more of three things: replace existing fossil fuel-based energy generation with clean, renewable sources; reduce consumption through technological efficiency and behavior change; and to biosequester carbon in our plants' biomass and soil through a process we all learn in grade school, the magic of photosynthesis.

我為一個叫“遞減減排項目”的組織工作。在過去4年中,與來自全球各地的研究者和作家團隊一起,我們已經繪制,測量和詳細制定了100種扭逆轉全球變暖的解決方案。其中80種已存在于生活中,當一起實施時,這80個方案就可以實現減排?;褂?0個方案即將推出,或在醞釀中,當它們上線時,會加快我們的進程。這些解決方案是可行的、可擴展的、經濟上允許的。它們能做下面三件事情中的一件或多件:用清潔、可再生的能源取代現有的化石燃料發電;通過技術效率和行為改變降低消耗;通過我們在小學里學到的光合作用的魔力,將碳封存在我們植物的生物量和土壤中。

It's through a combination of these three mechanisms that drawdown becomes possible. So how do we get there? Well, here's the short answer. This is a list of the top 20 solutions to reversing global warming. Now, I'll go into some detail, but take a few seconds to look over the list. It's eclectic, I know, from onshore wind turbines to educating girls, from plant-rich diets to rooftop solar technology. So let's break it down a little bit. To the right of the slide, you'll see figures in gigatons, or billions of tons. That represents the total equivalent carbon dioxide reduced from the atmosphere when the solution is implemented globally over a 30-year period. Now, when we think about climate solutions, we often think about electricity generation. We think of renewable energy as the most important set of solutions, and they are incredibly important. But the first thing to notice about this list is that only five of the top 20 solutions relate to electricity. What surprised us, honestly, was that eight of the top 20 relate to the food system. The climate impact of food may come as a surprise to many people, but what these results show is that the decisions we make every day about the food we produce, purchase and consume are perhaps the most important contributions every individual can make to reversing global warming. And how we manage land is also very important. Protecting forests and wetlands safeguards, expands and creates new carbon sinks that directly draw down carbon. This is how drawdown can happen. And when we take food and land management together, 12 of the top 20 solutions relate to how and why we use land. This fundamentally shifts traditional thinking on climate solutions. But let's go to the top of the list, because I think what's there may also surprise you. The single most impactful solution, according to this analysis, would be refrigeration management, or properly managing and disposing of hydrofluorocarbons, also known as HFCs, which are used by refrigerators and air conditioners to cool the air. We did a great job with the Montreal Protocol to limit the production of chlorofluorocarbons, CFCs, because of their effect on the ozone layer. But they were replaced by HFCs, which are hundreds to thousands of times more potent a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. And that 90 gigatons reduced is a conservative figure. If we were to account for the impact of the Kigali agreement of 2016, which calls for the phaseout of hydrofluorocarbons and replace them with natural refrigerants, which exist today, this number could increase to 120, to nearly 200 gigatons of avoided greenhouse gases. Maybe you're surprised, as we were.

這三種機制的結合使得遞減減排成為可能。那么我們如何實現?這里有份簡短的答案。這是逆轉全球變暖的20大解決方案清單。現在,我將詳細介紹一下,但請花幾秒鐘看看這份清單。這上面什么都有,我知道,從陸上風力渦輪機到女性教育,從植物為主的飲食到屋頂太陽能技術。我們把它們分解一下。在幻燈片的右邊,你會看到以10億為單位的數字?;蛘?0億噸。這代表大氣層中減少的二氧化碳總量若這些解決方案在全球部署超過30年。如今,當我們想到氣候解決方案,我們常常想到發電問題。我們認為可再生能源是最重要的解決方案,它們的確非常重要。但在這份清單中需要注意的首要事情是前20個解決方案中只有5個跟電力有關。老實說,讓我們吃驚的是,20大解決方案中有8個跟食物系統有關。食物對氣候的影響可能出乎多數人預料,但這些結果顯示我們每天在生產,購買和消費什么食物上的決定可能是個人可以對扭轉全球變暖能做的最重要貢獻。我們如何管理土地也非常重要。?;ど趾褪?,擴大和創造新的碳吸存(碳匯)可以直接減少碳。這就是遞減減排可以發生的方式。當我們把食物和土地管理放一起時,前20大解決方案中有12個跟我們如何和為什么使用土地有關。這根本上逆轉了對氣候解決方案的傳統思考。但讓我們回到清單的頂部,因為我覺得這些會讓你們感到驚訝。根據分析,最有影響力的解決方案是制冷管理,也就是妥善管理、處理氫氟烴(HFCs),冰箱和空調用其冷卻空氣。我們在《蒙特利爾議定書》上做得很好,限制了氯氟烴(CFCs)的生產,因為它們對臭氧層的影響。但是它們被HFCs取代了,其溫室氣體的強度是二氧化碳的幾十萬倍。減少900億噸都是保守數字。如果我們考慮進2016年《基加利協議》的影響,這個協議要求逐步淘汰氫氟碳化合物,以目前存在的天然制冷劑取代之,這個數字可能會增加1200億噸,總共減少溫室氣體排放接近2000億噸??贍苣惚瘓鵲攪?,就如我們過去一樣。

Now, before going into some details of specific solutions, you may be wondering how we came to these calculations. Well, first of all, we collected a lot of data, and we used statistical analysis to create ranges that allow us to choose reasonable choices for every input used throughout the models. And we chose a conservative approach, which underlies the entire project. All that data is entered in the model, ambitiously but plausibly projected into the future, and compared against what we would have to do anyway. The 84 gigatons reduced from onshore wind turbines, for example, results from the electricity generated from wind farms that would otherwise be produced from coal or gas-fired plants. We calculate all the costs to build and to operate the plants and all the emissions generated. The same process is used to compare recycling versus landfilling, regenerative versus industrial agriculture, protecting versus cutting down our forests. The results are then integrated within and across systems to avoid double-counting and add it up to see if we actually get to drawdown.

現在,在看具體解決方案的細節前,你可能好奇我們是怎么算出這些數字的。首先,我們收集了大量的數據,我們使用統計分析來創建范圍,使我們能夠為整個模型中的每個輸入選擇合理的選項。我們選擇了保守的方法,這是整個項目的基礎。那些數據進入模型,大膽但合理地預測未來,并與我們之前要做的對比。例如,使用陸上風力渦輪機所減少的840億噸,是因為用風力發電廠發電,這些電先前由燃煤或燃氣發電產生。我們計算建造和運營這些工廠的所有成本,以及所有產生的排放。同樣的過程被用來比較回收和填埋,再生農業與工業化農業,?;び肟撤ド?。然后在系統內部和跨系統整合結果,以避免重復計數并把它們加起來看能不能實現減排。

OK, let's go into some specific solutions. Rooftop solar comes in ranked number 10. When we picture rooftop solar in our minds we often envision a warehouse in Miami covered in solar panels. But these are solutions that are relevant in urban and rural settings, high and low-income countries, and they have cascading benefits. This is a family on a straw island in Lake Titicaca receiving their first solar panel. Before, kerosene was used for cooking and lighting, kerosene on a straw island. So by installing solar, this family is not only helping to reduce emissions, but providing safety and security for their household.

好了,讓我們看一看具體的解決方案。屋頂太陽能排在第10位。當我們在腦海中想象太陽能屋頂時,我們經常想象一個位于邁阿密的倉庫,屋頂覆蓋著太陽能電池板。但這些解決方案同樣適用于我們的城市和農村環境,高和低收入國家,而且他們具有連鎖效應。這是一個在喀喀湖稻草島上的家庭他們收到的第一塊太陽能電池板。以前,稻草島上人們用煤油來做飯和照明。所以通過安裝太陽能,這個家庭不僅減少了排放,而且也為他們的房屋提供了安全保障。

And tropical forests tell their own story. Protecting currently degraded land in the tropics and allowing natural regeneration to occur is the number five solution to reversing global warming. We can think of trees as giant sticks of carbon. This is drawdown in action every year, as carbon is removed from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, which converts carbon dioxide to plants' biomass and soil organic carbon.

熱帶森林的故事則是另外一番景象。?;と卻厙殼巴嘶耐戀?,允許自然再生是逆轉全球變暖的第五個解決方案。我們可以把樹林看作巨大的碳棒。碳可以通過光合作用從大氣中去除,將二氧化碳轉化為植物的生物量和土壤有機碳,碳的消耗每年都在減少。

And we need to rethink how we produce our food to make it more regenerative. There are many ways to do this, and we researched over 13 of them, but these aren't new ways of producing food. They have been practiced for centuries, for generations. But they are increasingly displaced by modern agriculture, which promotes tillage, monocropping and the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides which degrade the land and turn it into a net emitter of greenhouse gases. Regenerative agriculture, on the other hand, restores soil health and productivity, increases yield, improves water retention, benefits smallholder farmers and large farming operations alike and brings carbon back to the land. It's a win-win-win-win-win.

我們需要重新思考我們如何生產食物讓它更加“可再生”。有很多方法可以做到這一點,我們研究了其中的13種,這些其實都不是生產食物的新方法。它們已經被實踐了幾個世紀,幾代人。但它們正日益被現代農業取代,現代農業促進了機械耕作、單一作物制,用合成化肥和殺蟲劑,從而導致土地退化,并把它變成了溫室氣體的排放源。在另一方面,可再生農業,恢復土壤健康和生產力,增加糧食產量,提高保水性,使小農和大型農業經營同樣受益,并將碳帶回土地。這個結果是贏-贏-贏-贏-贏。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

And it's not just how we produce food, but what we consume that has a massive impact on global warming.

對全球變暖的巨大影響不僅與我們如何生產食物有關,還包括我們怎么消費食物。

A plant-rich diet is not a vegan or a vegetarian diet, though I applaud any who make those choices. It's a healthy diet in terms of how much we consume, and particularly how much meat is consumed. In the richer parts of the world, we overconsume. However, low-income countries show an insufficient caloric and protein intake. That needs rebalancing, and it's in the rebalancing that a plant-rich diet becomes the number four solution to reversing global warming.

植物性飲食不是嚴格素食或素食節食,盡管我贊賞那些做出這些選擇的人。就我們的食用量而言,這是一種健康的飲食,尤其在攝入的肉類數量方面。在全球最富裕的地方,我們常常攝入過多。然而,低收入國家則顯示熱量和蛋白質攝入不足。這需要再平衡,它正在再平衡中。植物性飲食成為逆轉全球變暖的第四個解決方案。

Moreover, approximately a third of all food produced is not eaten, and wasted food emits an astounding eight percent of global greenhouse gases. We need to look where across the supply chain these losses and wastage occurs. In low-income countries, after food leaves the farm, most food is wasted early in the supply chain due to infrastructure and storage challenges. Food is not wasted by consumers in low-income countries which struggle to feed their population. In the developed world, instead, after food leaves the farm, most food is wasted at the end of the supply chain by markets and consumers, and wasted food ends up in the landfill where it emits methane as it decomposes. This is a consumer choice problem. It's not a technology issue. Preventing food waste from the beginning is the number three solution. But here's the interesting thing. When we look at the food system as a whole and we implement all the production solutions like regenerative agriculture, and we adopt a plant-rich diet, and we reduce food waste, our research shows that we would produce enough food on current farmland to feed the world's growing population a healthy, nutrient-rich diet now until 2050 and beyond. That means we don't need to cut down forests for food production. The solutions to reversing global warming are the same solutions to food insecurity.

此外,大約1/3被生產的食物沒有被吃完,被浪費的食物排放出令人震驚的全球8%的溫室氣體。我們需要審視整個供應鏈這些損耗和浪費發生在哪里。在低收入國家,在食物離開農場后,大部分食物浪費在供應鏈的早期,這歸咎于基礎設施和存儲的不足。掙扎著喂飽其人口的低收入國家:食物不是被消費者浪費的。在發達國家,情況恰恰相反:食物離開農場后,大部分食物被供應鏈終端的市場和消費者浪費了,浪費的食物被丟進垃圾填埋場,在那里分解時排放出甲烷。這是一個消費者選擇問題。這不是技術問題。從一開始就阻止食物浪費是第三個解決方案。但這里有個有趣的事情。當我們把整個食物系統當作整體去看,實施像可再生農業那樣的生產解決方案,采取植物性飲食,并減少食物浪費時,我們的研究發現我們可以在現有的農田上生產足夠食物提供健康而營養豐富的飲食從現在到2050年及以后喂飽全球不斷增長的人口。這意味著我們不需要砍伐森林來生產食物。逆轉全球變暖的解決方案也正是保障食品安全的解決方案。

Now, a solution that often does not get talked enough about, family planning. By providing men and women the right to choose when, how and if to raise a family through reproductive health clinics and education, access to contraception and freedom devoid of persecution can reduce the estimated global population by 2050. That reduced population means reduced demand for electricity, food, travel, buildings and all other resources. All the energy and emissions that are used to produce that higher demand is reduced by providing the basic human right to choose when, how and if to raise a family. But family planning cannot happen without equal quality of education to girls currently being denied access. Now, we've taken a small liberty here, because the impact of universal education and family planning resources are so inextricably intertwined that we chose to cut it right down the middle. But taken together, educating girls and family planning is the number one solution to reversing global warming, reducing approximately 120 billion tons of greenhouse gases.

有一個解決方案經常被人們忽視,計劃生育。通過為男性和女性提供選擇權,來選擇何時,如何,是否養育家庭通過建立生殖健康診所、生殖教育、獲得避孕產品和不受迫害的自由,可以減少2050年的預期全球人口。人口的減少意味著對電力,食物,旅行,建筑和其他資源需求的減少。所有來滿足原本高需求而生產的能源和排放,因此可以減少,只需提供基本人權,來選擇何時,如何及是否養育家庭。但計劃生育無法真正實現,若目前無法上學的女孩沒有接受同等質量教育的機會。現在,有點冒昧地在這說一下,因為普及教育和計劃生育的影響是如此不可分割地交織在一起,以致我們選擇將其一分為二。但總的來說,教育女性和計劃生育是逆轉全球變暖的第一個解決方案,可減少大約1200億噸溫室氣體。

So is drawdown possible? The answer is yes, it is possible, but we need all 80 solutions. There are no silver bullets or a subset of solutions that are going to get us there. The top solutions would take us far along the pathway, but there's no such thing as a small solution. We need all 80. But here's the great thing. We would want to implement these solutions whether or not global warming was even a problem, because they have cascading benefits to human and planetary well-being. Renewable electricity results in clean, abundant access to energy for all. A plant-rich diet, reduced food waste results in a healthy global population with enough food and sustenance. Family planning and educating girls? This is about human rights, about gender equality. This is about economic improvement and the freedom of choice. It's about justice. Regenerative agriculture, managed grazing, agroforestry, silvopasture restores soil health, benefits farmers and brings carbon back to the land. Protecting our ecosystems also protects biodiversity and safeguards planetary health and the oxygen that we breathe. Its tangible benefits to all species are incalculable.

所以遞減減排是可能的?答案是肯定的,是可能的。但我們需要所有這80個解決方案。沒有靈丹妙藥或單靠里面幾個就能讓我們實現那個目標。最靠前的解決方案可以讓我們延著這條路走得很遠,但沒有任何一個解決方案可以被忽略的,我們需要所有的80個。但有件事很棒。我們需要實施的這些解決方案,不管全球變暖是不是個問題,因為它們對人類和地球的福祉有連鎖反應??稍偕緦ξ腥頌峁┝飼褰?、豐富的能源。植物性飲食,減少食物浪費帶來有足夠食物和營養的全球健康人口。計劃生育和女性教育?這跟人權有關,跟性別平等有關。這是事關經濟改善和選擇自由。這事關公正。再生農業,管理放牧,農林復合,森林?;せ指賜寥瀾】?,造福農民并把碳帶回土地。?;の頤塹納低騁簿捅;ち松鋃嘌院捅;ち說厙蚪】狄約拔頤撬粑目掌?。它對所有物種的有形利益是不可估量的。

But one last point, because I know it's probably on everybody's mind; how much is this going to cost? Well, we estimate that to implement all 80 solutions would cost about 29 trillion dollars over 30 years. That's just about a trillion a year. Now, I know that sounds like a lot, but we have to remember that global GDP is over 80 trillion every year, and the estimated savings from implementing these solutions is 74 trillion dollars, over double the costs. That's a net savings of 44 trillion dollars.

但最后一點,因為我知道大家可能都在想這需要花費多少成本?我們估算實施所有80個解決方案需要在30年中花費29萬億美元。每年只需要1萬億美元。我知道這個數字聽起來很大,但我們需要記得全球每年的GDP超過80萬億美元,并且實施這些解決方案帶來的估計節省是74萬億美元,是成本的兩倍多。凈節省44萬億美元。

So drawdown is possible. We can do it if we want to. It's not going to cost that much, and the return on that investment is huge.

所以遞減減排是可行的。只要我們想做就能做到。不需要花費那么高的成本,投資的回報確是巨大的。

Here's the welcome surprise. When we implement these solutions, we shift the way we do business from a system that is inherently exploitative and extractive to a new normal that is by nature restorative and regenerative. We need to rethink our global goals, to move beyond sustainability towards regeneration, and along the way reverse global warming.

這是一個受歡迎的驚喜。當我們實施這些解決方案,我們把做生意的方式從一個本質上是剝削和榨取的系統轉移到一個新的天然的具有恢復性和可再生新常態系統。我們需要重新思考我們的全球目標,去超越可持續性,走向再生,并在此過程中逆轉全球變暖。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

(掌聲)

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英語演講排行